Iran faces significant challenges due to its reliance on finite natural resources, especially oil and gas, which have long been the backbone of its economy. If these resources were to diminish substantially or become inaccessible due to sanctions or depletion, Iran would need to adapt its strategies to survive and maintain its regional influence.
Economic Diversification
Iran has recognized the risks of overdependence on oil revenue and has been attempting to diversify its economy. This includes developing sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and technology. However, progress has been slow, and international sanctions continue to hamper growth.
Increased Domestic Production and Self-Reliance
Iran is likely to push harder for self-sufficiency, investing in domestic industries, renewable energy, and alternative resources. Efforts to boost food production and reduce imports may intensify.
Regional Alliances and Partnerships
Facing resource constraints, Iran may strengthen ties with neighboring countries and non-Western powers to secure access to alternative supplies, investment, and trade routes. This could include deeper cooperation with China, Russia, and regional allies.
Strategic Use of Military and Proxy Influence
To maintain its geopolitical leverage despite economic challenges, Iran may rely more heavily on its military capabilities and proxy networks in the Middle East. This could manifest as increased support for allied groups or more assertive regional actions.
Potential Internal Instability
Resource scarcity could exacerbate domestic tensions, leading to economic hardship for ordinary citizens, which in turn might fuel protests or unrest. The government’s response to such instability would be critical in shaping Iran’s future trajectory.
In summary, while running out of resources would be a severe blow, Iran is expected to adapt by diversifying its economy, strengthening alliances, and leveraging its geopolitical tools. The exact outcome will depend on internal resilience and external pressures in the years ahead.
