As the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel takes shape, a major question looms over its durability: Will Israel actually stop launching attacks on Iranian targets? While official statements suggest a temporary pause in hostilities, Israel’s actions in the coming days will be the real test of its commitment.
Israel’s Strategic Dilemma
For years, Israel has viewed Iran as its most serious regional threat — particularly over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and support for armed groups near Israel’s borders. Even during ceasefires, Israel has historically carried out preemptive or retaliatory strikes to prevent Iran from gaining a foothold in Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza.
To Israel, stopping attacks could be seen as lowering its guard, something the Israeli military and intelligence community are often reluctant to do.
Pressure from Allies — and Trump
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who claims to have influenced the ceasefire, has urged Israel to stand down and give diplomacy a chance. If Israel continues to strike, it may jeopardize the fragile truce and strain relations with key international partners — particularly the U.S., which plays a major role in regional security cooperation.
What Could Trigger More Strikes?
Despite the ceasefire, several conditions could prompt renewed Israeli action:
- Suspicion of Iranian arms transfers to proxies
- Signs of nuclear development escalation
- Missile threats from Iranian-linked forces near Israeli borders
Israel is known for acting without waiting for international approval when it sees a threat.
Final Thought
While Israel may temporarily hold back, long-term restraint depends on trust — and that’s in short supply between Tel Aviv and Tehran. Unless significant guarantees are in place and Iran also holds its fire, further Israeli strikes remain a real possibility, even under the banner of “defense.”
The ceasefire may hold on paper, but whether it holds in the skies above the Middle East is still uncertain.
