The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.1%, up from the 3% it projected in July, crediting the continued artificial intelligence investment boom with offsetting the drag from ongoing conflicts and trade tensions. The updated figures, part of the Fund’s October World Economic Outlook, were released Tuesday as finance ministers, central bankers and economists from 191 countries gathered in Bangkok for the IMF and World Bank’s Annual Meetings.
The gathering, running from October 12 through October 18 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, has drawn more than 15,000 policymakers, business executives and journalists, marking the first time Thailand has hosted the meetings since 1991.
Even with the upward revision, this year’s pace remains slower than the 3.5% growth recorded last year. The Fund left its 2027 forecast unchanged at 3.4%, suggesting officials see the current growth trajectory stabilizing rather than accelerating further in the near term.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva used the meetings to flag risks that could still weigh on the outlook, pointing to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence investment, persistently elevated energy prices and record levels of public debt as the three issues most likely to complicate the global picture in the months ahead.
Artificial intelligence features heavily on this year's agenda beyond the growth forecast itself, with sessions dedicated to its effects on employment, productivity and emerging cyber risks. Thailand, as host, has used the meetings to promote its own priorities, including economic resilience, green finance, and a fraud-prevention initiative dubbed the "Bangkok Blueprint."
The Fund is set to follow the growth update with its Global Financial Stability Report later in the week, which typically assesses vulnerabilities across banking systems, sovereign debt markets and capital flows. Officials at the meetings have cautioned that the modest upgrade to this year's growth figure masks uneven resilience across regions, with high debt servicing costs and energy prices continuing to cloud the medium-term outlook even as AI-driven investment props up headline numbers.
