While the cryptocurrency market is going upward and prices are rising, many expect a new start to a bull run. However, not many are watching macro levels. On the macro, Bitcoin is pretty much topped out and there is a very high chance of a mega drop. Profits on long Bitcoin futures can turn quickly into losses, so traders are reminded to take profits while they can.
It seems like most of the crypto retail market is in long positions, and they have been longing for a while now. One of the most important key factors to look at when taking a future position on crypto derivatives is to look at the overall and analyze what people are doing.
Most of the time especially in the crypto market, if the majority of people are taking the same action, it is very likely that the opposite action may occur out of a sudden which can shock you.
Traders can take an example during the year 2022 especially Q2-Q3 when there were big reversals in price changes of $10,000 when Bitcoin prices were jumping between $40,000 and $30,000; and then $30,000 and $20,000. In the statistics of Bitcoin addresses, we see that the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has grown up significantly from a price of $15,000 to $28,000 and then most of the wallets have sold those Bitcoins. Following the whales, this could potentially indicate the expected direction that whales and large trades and perhaps even professional institutions are looking at.
Retail investors are still buying and longing, but institutions seem to have paused their movement, and if institutions and whales are not buying then it’s likely they may be betting against the retail in which case the price can drop by $10,000 in just 24 hours at any given moment.
The crypto market stability in the current status is still very unclear and certainly not solid.